Measuring
Measuring
A market names something already being measured, freezes the last published value as its reference, and asks one question: will the next published value land above it or below it?
By any margin. One unit above counts exactly the same as a hundred above.
Again by any margin. The direction is the whole of the position.
Neither side wins. Every stake is returned in full and no protocol fee is taken. This is the only outcome in which nobody is paid.
Everything staked on a market sits in a single pool. There is no order book and no counterparty — you are entering a pool, not filling someone else's order.
A worked example with round numbers. It is not a market, and no measurement shown here was taken from anywhere.
Both sides are open. The pool moves with every entry, and so does the price each side implies.
A side’s share of the pool is the probability the market is quoting. A 64/36 pool prices MORE at 64¢ — a statement about where money currently sits, not a forecast from anywhere else.
Entering dilutes the side you join. A large stake into a thin side moves the price against itself, and any quote you are shown includes your own entry before it shows you a number.
Both pools keep moving while a market is open. A payout quoted at entry is an estimate at that moment, not an amount reserved for you.